Sabres · Why they fell off
The Sabres' 50-win season was built on goals that weren't supposed to happen
Based on the chances they created, last year's Sabres should have had about 91 points. They got 109. Here's what that means now.
Read the story2025-26 Sabres points
109
What they got
91
What their chances said
Only one NHL team outran its chances by more.
The Ledger
Every call, graded in public →Every prediction is timestamped before kickoff and graded after. Misses stay up.
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Latest analysis
All stories →Sabres · Why they fell offThe Sabres' 50-win season was built on goals that weren't supposed to happenBased on the chances they created, last year's Sabres should have had about 91 points. They got 109. Here's what that means now.Bills · Josh AllenJosh Allen, 2018 to now: what the data actually saysNine seasons, three play-callers, every dropback. Through week 8 he leads the league in passing efficiency, and he's winning off script.Bills · DefenseIs the Bills defense actually fixed?The run defense improved. The pass defense collapsed. Seven games of evidence, opponent-adjusted.
How we know
Not every shot is equal.
We counted how often 336,462 NHL shots actually went in. From within 10 feet, about 1 in 7. From 60 feet or more, about 1 in 125. Add those odds up and you know what a team's chances were really worth.
How we measure it →