Analysis
The work
November 13, 2026
Blackhawks 3, Sabres 2 (OT): Buffalo had more of the chances for 60 minutes and still lostBuffalo had more of the chances over 60 minutes and led 2-1 into the third. Chicago tied it and won in overtime, the pattern our pregame flagged for tired road teams.
November 12, 2026
Sabres at Blackhawks: the NHL's weakest team by chances, but Buffalo is on tired legsOur model: Sabres 57%, Blackhawks 43%. Chicago creates the fewest chances in the NHL. But Buffalo played last night, and tired road teams have won less often than our model expects.
November 12, 2026
Lightning 8, Sabres 3: outplayed early, then sunk in goalTampa had better than twice Buffalo's chances while the game was close, then the Sabres had one of the worst nights in goal in the NHL this season.
November 11, 2026
Sabres: who's running hot, and who's likely to heat upPower, Quinn and Benson are running furthest ahead of their history; McLeod, Doan and Norris are likely to heat up. Our player rating, tested on last season, beat going by pace.
November 11, 2026
Sabres vs. Lightning: Buffalo's best weapon meets a defense that keeps shots away from the netOur model: Lightning 53%, Sabres 47%. Buffalo's second chances meet a Tampa Bay defense that's 3rd at keeping shots away from its net, and the Sabres allow the 6th-most chances in the league.
November 10, 2026
What the Bills get in Amani Hooker: a ball hawk, and a new partner for Cole BishopAmani Hooker has 5 of Tennessee's 8 interceptions and tackles well. He also steps into the spot next to Cole Bishop, where the pass defense has tracked with whoever's played there.
November 10, 2026
Bills 23, Vikings 6: we nailed Buffalo's half and missed Minnesota'sWe projected the Bills for 23.4. They scored 23. We projected the Vikings for 22.8. They scored 6. Five of our seven calls hit; here's every one, graded.
November 9, 2026
Bills at Vikings: our prediction for Monday nightAs close as games get: our model projects Bills 23.4, Vikings 22.8. That small Buffalo edge shows up at nearly every scoreline and gives the Bills a 53% chance to win.
November 8, 2026
Golden Knights 4, Sabres 1: Buffalo had the better chances. Adin Hill had the better nightBuffalo's chances were worth more than Vegas's. Adin Hill stopped 28 of 29 and had one of the league's best goalie nights. Our model leaned slightly to Vegas, a hit, but a near coin flip.
November 9, 2026
Josh Allen and the Bills offense vs. the NFL's best defenseThe Vikings send five or more rushers on 73% of dropbacks, more than any defense by a mile. Josh Allen has been one of the best in the league against it.
November 8, 2026
Carson Wentz vs. the Bills defense: short passes, sacks and risky throwsCarson Wentz starts for Minnesota. Here's where his tendencies meet the Bills defense's weak spots, and what we expect Monday.
November 8, 2026
Sabres vs. Golden Knights: Buffalo's attack meets one of the NHL's toughest defensesVegas allows fewer chances than almost anyone. Buffalo allows more than most. Where the Sabres' rebound game fits in.
November 7, 2026
Sabres 5, Blue Jackets 2: Buffalo won the scramble in front of the netBuffalo's most dangerous night of the season came from living around Columbus's crease: 10 rebound shots, their most this year.
November 6, 2026
The Sabres' 50-win season was built on goals that weren't supposed to happenBased on the chances they created, last year's Sabres should have had about 91 points. They got 109. Here's what that means now.
November 5, 2026
Josh Allen, 2018 to now: what the data actually saysNine seasons, three play-callers, every dropback. Through week 8 he leads the league in passing efficiency, and he's winning off script.
November 5, 2026
Is the Bills defense actually fixed?The run defense improved. The pass defense collapsed. Seven games of evidence, opponent-adjusted.